Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS64 KOHX 141648
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1148 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Thursday afternoon and night. Greatest chance for severe storms
  will be N of I-40. Strong winds and small hail are the main
  concerns.

- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts
  and large hail are the main concerns.

- Hot weather arrives with high temperatures climbing into the
  upper 80s to near 90 through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Our spinning surface low that has been parked over Middle TN has
now moved off to the east. We saw widespread fog and low clouds
this morning, but fog has lifted and clouds are beginning to
breakup with increased daytime mixing. By this afternoon, we will
be looking at a pleasant day with highs in the 80s and a steady
breeze, with winds gusting around 15 mph. That said, it will be a
little humid as increased SW flow keeps min RHs in the 60s. There
is also a low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, but coverage will be limited and mainly E of I-65.
There is a very low chance that any storms that do form become
severe.

Models have been pulling back slightly on Thursday`s severe
weather potential for Middle TN. I believe this is largely to do a
weak CAP that looks to remain over the region Thursday. As of
right now, SPC has areas N of I-40 (cooridor of better lapse
rates) under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms.
The main threat looks to be strong winds and small hail. As for
timing, in general, Thursday afternoon looks the most favorable
for any storms to become severe. This will largely be driven by
warm surface temperatures increasing buoyancy combined with
increasing bulk wind shear through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday
night as a cold front pushes through the overnight hours. There
will remain a low chance for storms to become severe Thursday
night into early Friday morning, with moderate CAPE and sufficient
bulk shear.

There remains plenty of uncertainty on Friday`s severe weather
threat. The main areas of uncertainty revolve around exact timing
and location, but as of right now, Friday night looks the most
favorable for severe weather. There will be a favorable
environment, with models continuing to support CAPE values
between 2500-3500 J/kg, 50-60 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and mid-
level lapse rates around 7 C/km Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning. The uncertainty revolves around the warm sector and how
far north the boundary can make it. That said, models continue to
support scattered storms, organized clusters, and even some
continue to depict a strong MCS structure developing to our north
along the boundary and pushing through sometime Friday night into
early Saturday.

As Friday approaches, we hope to have a better idea of potential
location and timing for Friday nights storms. Moving into the
weekend, an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.
Depending on how far east the ridge builds will decide our rain
chances going into early next week. As of now, looks like mostly
dry with some periods of showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. There will
be isolated storms this afternoon, but with coverage less than 20
percent, no impacts will be included in tafs. Winds will be SSW,
mainly 5-10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  70  89  73 /  30  10  10  40
Clarksville    83  69  88  72 /  20  10  10  60
Crossville     77  62  84  67 /  40  20  10  30
Columbia       83  67  86  72 /  30   0  10  20
Cookeville     80  65  84  70 /  40  10  10  40
Jamestown      79  63  86  67 /  30  20  10  40
Lawrenceburg   82  66  84  71 /  30   0  10  20
Murfreesboro   83  68  86  72 /  40  10  10  30
Waverly        83  68  87  70 /  20   0  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....13