Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS64 KOHX 040505
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1205 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- There will be a short-lived warmup to start the week.

- High rain and storm chances return Tuesday & Wednesday. Some
  localized flooding is possible. The severe weather threat is
  low.

- Cooler weather will resume Wednesday and stay through the end
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Cool and clear again tonight, though temperatures will be much
warmer than they were last night with lows in the upper 40s to low
50s. Monday looks fantastic weather-wise. We`ll see some passing
clouds as a weak wave brushes just our north, but enough sun to
warm us back into the upper 70s to low 80s. It will be breezy,
too, as southwest winds increase during the afternoon to 10-15 mph
sustained with occasional gusts up to 30 mph with afternoon
mixing. This will be the beginning of a days-long infusion of
moisture into Middle TN. Quiet Monday night with lows in the 50s.
Tuesday will bring the start of a rainy several days across the
mid state as the first of a series of waves passes over. Rain will
overspread the area from northwest to southeast through the
afternoon Tuesday with low thunderstorm chances as instability
will be lacking. The front will eventually stall out near the I-40
cooridor overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, providing a
more focused area for heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms. MUCAPE
values during this time will once again be minimal, especially
given the nocturnal timing, but a few hundred joules could be
available for storms to work with.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

As the trough continues its push east Wednesday, it will dislodge
the stalled frontal boundary, bringing the heaviest rain and any
storm potential threat largely to an end from west to east. The
timing of this is still up in the air, though models continue to
trend faster with clearing the front out of the area. There`s more
agreement tonight with the boundary being through the Nashville
area by Wednesday evening, with post frontal showers lingering
into the day Thursday.

In terms of hazards with this setup, severe weather on the whole
appears unlikely at this time. With Middle TN situated on the
northern side of this low, that typically shuts us off from the
better instability. With that being said....IF there is an
opportunity for any daytime heating to sneak through or that low
shifts just a skosh north, ample bulk shear will be in place as
well as sufficient mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km, so it`s not
something to totally dismiss. The opportunity for this looks best
south of I-40, especially near the AL/TN border. Now let`s talk
flooding chances. This one is a bit more uncertain considering
just how DRY everything is. PWAT values will be well above the
90th percentile climatologically, ranging between 1.50"-1.60", so
that favors very healthy rainfall rates. Given that this will be a
stalled-out boundary situation with multiple waves rippling
through, I think it`s fair to say a few spots of localized
flooding could occur. NBM probabilities of 2"+ continue to tick up
with chances ranging between 30-60%, the higher chances located along
and south of I-40.

The trough axis will swing through the area Thursday, keeping
lingering showers and clouds around. Our upper pattern will remain
progressive with prevailing northwesterly flow, helping stream in
weak disturbances through the weekend that will keep very low
(10-20%) hit or miss rain/storm chances in the forecast. Better,
more widespread rain chances will not to return until the
Sunday/Monday timeframe. Gradual warming will continue, too, with
highs warming into upper 70s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period with passing high clouds.
Southerly winds under 10 knots overnight. LLWS 24040kt will
develop over KCKV through 15z. Southerly winds increase after 15z
and become breezy with gusts up to 23 knots through 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  58  77  59 /   0  10  60  90
Clarksville    82  58  74  54 /   0  30  90  90
Crossville     75  52  72  57 /   0   0  30  80
Columbia       81  55  76  59 /   0  10  50  80
Cookeville     77  54  73  58 /   0   0  40  90
Jamestown      77  53  74  56 /   0   0  40  90
Lawrenceburg   79  55  75  60 /   0   0  30  70
Murfreesboro   81  56  76  59 /   0   0  40  80
Waverly        80  58  73  54 /   0  20  80  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller