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Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Nashville TN
National Weather Service Forecast for: Nashville TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Nashville, TN
Updated: 11:14 pm CDT Jun 5, 2025
 
Today

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms then
T-storms
Likely
Tonight

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4am, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South southwest wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely then
Chance
T-storms
Saturday

Saturday: A chance of showers before 10am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10am and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely then
T-storms
Likely
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7pm and 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.
T-storms
Likely then
Showers
Likely
Sunday

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers between 7am and 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A slight chance of thunderstorms before 7pm.  Mostly clear, with a low around 67. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Monday

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Showers
Likely
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
Showers

Tuesday

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Partly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Hi 90 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 70 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 67 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 66 °F Hi 84 °F

 

Today
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
 
A chance of showers before 10am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10am and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7pm and 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers between 7am and 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
 
A slight chance of thunderstorms before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Monday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Wednesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Thursday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Nashville TN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
521
FXUS64 KOHX 060814
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
314 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 258 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Low risk for severe storms Friday afternoon into the early
  evening hours. Main concerns are damaging wind gusts and heavy
  rain potentially leading to localized flooding.

- Low risk for severe storms Saturday, however confidence is low
  in exact coverage and timing.

- While Sunday could be dry for most of Middle TN, unsettled
  weather continues into next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
...Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The severe storm risk for Middle Tennessee the next two days has
not changed appreciatively with the morning round of updates from
the SPC. We are under a slight risk of severe storms today and
again tomorrow, mainly during the afternoon and evening. However,
due to the scattered nature of the expected convection, it is
difficult to get specific with any timing estimates. This morning,
an MCS will ride a weak shortwave eastward out of Oklahoma,
across Arkansas, and into West Tennessee during the morning. The
06Z HRRR suggests that the original MCS will dissipate before
reaching Middle Tennessee, but additional storms will develop as
the aforementioned shortwave pushes into Middle Tennessee during
the mid to late afternoon and into the evening hours. Most of the
day`s convection will be gone by the overnight period. The latest
NAM forecast sounding for Nashville at 21Z today gives a surface-
based CAPE in excess of 2,600 J/kg and a lifted index of -8. Mid-
level lapse rates look a little better at 6.0C/km. Helicity values
are under 100, but the precipitable water is sky-high at 1.95",
which is very close to a daily max value and definitely above the
90th percentile. So there is the potential for strong to damaging
wind gusts with today`s storms, and a nice mid-level dry layer
and low LI value also hints at the potential for updrafts strong
enough to support large hail, which then points to the potential
for frequent lightning with the stronger storms, which is critical
given the outdoor events that will be going on today. Tomorrow,
the HRRR brings another MCS across the area during the morning
hours, but on a trajectory that takes the strongest storms across
southern Middle Tennessee, thereby bypassing the Nashville Metro
Area. There will likely be additional storms that develop during
peak-heating hours on Saturday, but confidence in severe storm
development across areas, say, along and north of I-40 is much
lower than confidence today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

It`s been pretty quiet across Middle TN this evening as very obvious
subsidence has kept any storms from developing. We`ve had a couple
of showers develop west of I-65, but the mid-state has been in a
subsidence zone between the wave on the Atlantic seaboard and a weak
upper trough to our west. This should continue through most of the
night and the most we are likely to get tonight is some patchy fog.
However, this likely won`t be the case for tomorrow. As temperatures
climb into the 80s again tomorrow afternoon and a southerly push of
moisture increases dew points into the low 70s (it`s gonna be sticky
out there), CAPE values will jump up near 2500 J/Kg (or better).
With instability in place, we need a lifting mechanism and that
might come in the form of a remnant MCS from OK/AR that is
expected to move towards Middle TN later tonight and tomorrow
morning. By the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area, however timing is a bit suspect right
now. CAMs are a bit diverse in solution regarding storm timing,
but I think from mid-afternoon into the early evening, we`re
going to be monitoring the radar closely. Biggest concerns still
looks like wind and heavy rain. Lapse rates are in the mid 6s and
with about 35 kts of shear, but very little helicity, damaging
winds will be the primary threat tomorrow. Additionally, with PWs
expected to be in the 90th percentile and storm motions about 15
kts, we could be looking at some real gushers. Localized flooding
can`t be ruled out because of this.

If you have outdoor plans tomorrow, be sure you are watching the
weather. Make sure you are aware of the location of shelters in
the event your location goes under a severe thunderstorm warning.

As zonal flow aloft continues into the day on Saturday and yet
another MCS pushes out of OK/AR in our direction Saturday morning, a
very similar situation could present itself in the afternoon.
Confidence in this occurring is lower, however. This is due to
recent CAM runs that suggest a more southeasterly track of storms,
potentially pushing from the Memphis region and into northern
Alabama. Very mesoscale details will make that decision on
trajectory and hopefully we can get a clearer picture on rain
chances by tomorrow evening for Saturday`s storm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

If you have outdoor plans this weekend and you`re looking for a dry
day, Sunday could be your day. Many models are suggesting dry skies
with warm temperatures and dew points relaxing back into the 60s
under northwest flow.

Extended guidance is a bit diverse next week. GFS is suggesting an
active pattern with Euro showing at least the middle of the week
being dry after storms roll through here on Monday (both are
actually showing this). Of course, rain chances will help dictate
afternoon highs, but the 6-10 day outlook does keep us near normal
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF cycle, but
scattered storms will enter the picture Friday afternoon and
likely last into the early evening hours. With some uncertainty
regarding timing, have covered with PROB30s for the time being,
but they may need to be adjusted with the 12Z issuance. Any storms
that directly affect a terminal will cause brief IFR to LIFR
conditions. Winds will be light (10 kts or less) and mainly
southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  72  83  71 /  80  60  70  70
Clarksville    85  70  82  69 /  80  60  70  60
Crossville     82  65  79  65 /  80  70  80  90
Columbia       89  70  83  69 /  80  50  70  80
Cookeville     84  67  80  66 /  80  70  80  80
Jamestown      82  65  79  65 /  80  70  80  80
Lawrenceburg   87  69  83  68 /  70  50  80  80
Murfreesboro   89  70  84  69 /  80  60  80  80
Waverly        85  68  81  67 /  70  60  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Unger
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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