Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS64 KOHX 041124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

- Flash Flood Watch continues for a large portion of Middle TN
  through Sunday morning. Any storms could quickly cause an issue
  anywhere in the watch between now and then.

- Tornado Watch has been cancelled, though some storms are
  possible in our northwestern quadrant before midnight. The
  tornado threat is very low in this area, but hail and wind could
  be an issue, still.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A surface boundary bisects Middle Tennessee this evening, with
abundant moisture located north of the boundary and drier air on
the warm side. At this time, the OHX radar is eerily PPINE across
most of Middle Tennessee, but this won`t last much longer. The
next round of storms is already crossing the Tennessee River into
Middle Tennessee and these will add to what are already some
hefty rainfall totals that have accumulated since yesterday.
Indeed, the storm total rainfall estimates are impressive, with a
large swath of 3 to 8" totals covering roughly the northwest half
of Middle Tennessee, and a large swath of zero amounts across
much of the southeast half. So the gradient is quite remarkable,
and it`s largely been defined by the aforementioned surface
boundary. Already, many of our river forecast points have reached
or are forecast to reach action stage, and a second surge will
occur on Sunday once the "Grand Finale" to this event takes place
with a long-awaited cold frontal passage. In the near-term, look
for additional cells to rumble into Middle Tennessee late this
evening and overnight, although not nearly to the extent that we
endured last evening and overnight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night we
expect low or no PoPs except for northwestern portions of the mid
state. So that will give us a bit of a breather before this days-
long active weather system finally comes to an impressive
conclusion. There is still some severe potential on days 1 and 2,
but at this point our greatest concern is flooding -- both flash-
flooding and river flooding. The atmosphere across a large
portion of the mid state has been abnormally warm and abnormally
moisture-laden. In fact, the NAEFS forecast Precipitable Water
anomalies valid for 00Z Sunday show standard deviations of 3-4
across northwest Middle Tennessee. The 00Z HRRR gives 48-hr QPF
values (running from now until 00Z Sunday) of 6 to 10" across a
northwest portions of Middle Tennessee, and that`s on top of what
has already occurred.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Rain chances will definitely linger into Sunday as the cold front
takes its time crossing the mid state. Much cooler air awaits on
the other side, along with several days of benign weather. We
even expect to see some frost or actual freezing temperatures
both Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. We`ll warm up
some by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Ceilings should raise from IFR/LIFR to VFR as the day goes on.
Clearing from east to west as clouds retreat. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible again today but not a whole lot of
confidence in exact location or timing so excluded them from the
TAFs. Winds will be from the south around 10 knots but could gust
up to 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  70  83  54 /  40  20  80  90
Clarksville    82  67  77  48 /  70  50 100 100
Crossville     82  65  82  57 /  20   0  40  70
Columbia       86  69  84  53 /  30  10  70  90
Cookeville     84  67  83  55 /  30  10  60  90
Jamestown      83  65  84  53 /  30  10  50  80
Lawrenceburg   86  70  84  55 /  20  10  60  90
Murfreesboro   87  69  85  54 /  30  10  60  90
Waverly        85  67  78  47 /  50  30  90 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>060-062-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley